Its actually wild that Dexter thinks he can successfully hide his identity for a long period of time. Especially when he knows Bautista is in New York trying to track him down and clearly knows the truth about him. In Dexters mind, Bautista doesnt have enough hard evidence, but that doesnt mean he can just go around pretending hes someone else! I do think hes going to get caught in his lie by something like what you outlined here and I just know its going to feel dumb, because as good as this season has been, Dexter is being dumb about pretending to be Red. Theres no way it was going to work for very long.