The total amount of imports is irrelevant to unfinished goods, you need to know what amount of non-imported unfinished goods use tariffed materials; total imports doesnt tell you that. You also need to consider that non-tariffed finished goods can be impacted and see price increases. A great example is in Trumps first term, where he tariffed foreign washing machines. Dryers were not part of the tariff, but dryers, even domestically made dryers, went up in price similar to washing machines. Furthermore, you have to consider the natural inflation that would be occurring even if there were zero tariffs. 3% is beyond conservative as an estimate.