r/EconomyCharts:

u/JC_Everyman

The OG Hodl crowd
u/JC_Everyman

Chart crime?
u/JC_Everyman

Low-key, but shouldn’t the Caymans making this chart set off alarm bells?
u/JC_Everyman

Well that explains a lot
u/JC_Everyman

Does it account for longer term changes to the investment pool chasing returns within that market? It’s seems the market participants have changed as well as access to leverage.
u/JC_Everyman

THIS TIME IT’S DIFFERENT???
u/xander707

A lot of the non-import market still uses tariffed raw materials. Tariffs also cause non-tariffed goods to rise in price, even goods that arent necessarily using tariffed raw materials to make.
u/xander707

Again, total imports may include those raw materials, but it doesnt tell you what percentage of domestic goods use those tariffed products as inputs. That percentage represents a direct and significant increase to production costs even for domestic products, and could theoretically impact a large percentage of the domestic economic market. Also, I dont know where you figure tariffs dont impact rent, but thats 100% wrong. When tariffs increase the costs of construction materials, that makes new construction more expensive. Which leads to a reduction in rental homes, and more expensive housing and rent across the board. It doesnt sound like you know what youre talking about at all.
u/xander707

The total amount of imports is irrelevant to unfinished goods, you need to know what amount of non-imported unfinished goods use tariffed materials; total imports doesnt tell you that. You also need to consider that non-tariffed finished goods can be impacted and see price increases. A great example is in Trumps first term, where he tariffed foreign washing machines. Dryers were not part of the tariff, but dryers, even domestically made dryers, went up in price similar to washing machines. Furthermore, you have to consider the natural inflation that would be occurring even if there were zero tariffs. 3% is beyond conservative as an estimate.
u/xander707

Tariffs only impact new homes. This is false, and therefore renders your whole premise false. Tariffs can and will make rent costs go up, and housing costs go up, for new and old homes alike. You say old stock will be impacted by new stock but it will be spread out over old homes. Thats not how it works. In 2000 average median rent was $639. Today it is $1850. Why am I telling you this? Because it doesnt matter if a home was built in 1980 vs being built today; when the cost of new housing goes up, so to does the value of older homes and rent costs. A house that was built in 1980 and sold for 80K, has been paid off for decades, will still have a rental cost of 2K+ a month in many areas, because thats where inflation, low inventory, and demand has driven all housing and rental prices. Old homes are not insulated against price increases. It doesnt make sense to argue that increases in new construction isn’t a big deal because there are old homes. Those old homes will experience similar price increases. Tariffs will inflate the costs of housing and lead to lower inventory, again worsening a situation that is already pretty bad.